Methodology

How it works

Every hour the system checks the sources below, groups reports about the same event, classifies them with AI and applies automatic evidence locks: no event reaches Alert without an official source or two independent wire services, and Emergency requires an official source. Unconfirmed rumors stay at Watch at most.

Levels

LEVEL 0 — NORMAL: no relevant change. Routine news, a statement with no practical consequence, a local event with no effect outside the city.
LEVEL 1 — ATTENTION: a reliable initial signal that warrants monitoring, with no demonstrated immediate threat. E.g.: increased diplomatic tensions, an announced military exercise, a regional weather alert, a price increase without product shortages, a localized outbreak reported by the WHO.
LEVEL 2 — CONCERN: a relevant change confirmed by independent sources, with a plausible consequence. E.g.: a military attack between countries, a partial blockade of a trade route, a regional blackout lasting hours, a cyberattack on an essential service, an official restriction on the export of an important food, a health emergency involving transmission between countries.
LEVEL 3 — ALERT: a concrete and documented risk of affecting services, travel, supplies, or security in a defined region. Requires an official source OR two independent agencies. E.g.: active war with attacks on infrastructure, closure of a route that is already reducing fuel supplies, announced rationing, an official declaration of a regional emergency, a "Great Danger" alert from Civil Defense/INMET (Brazilian agencies).
LEVEL 4 — EMERGENCY: a serious confirmed event or official alert requiring immediate action by the affected population. Requires an official source. E.g.: an evacuation order, a nuclear attack or an attack on a nuclear power plant involving the release of radiation, a nationwide blackout, an armed attack on the territory of the reader's country, confirmed shortages of fuel/water across a large region.

General rules:
- The level measures NEW and ACUTE risk, not the historical severity of a situation. A chronic humanitarian crisis (prolonged displacement, persistent hunger, a long-running conflict with no new development) remains at 1 or 2. It only rises to 3+ with a new and concrete escalation (a new offensive, an attack on infrastructure, a route blockade, a declared emergency).
- A local event (one city, one storm) only reaches 3 if there is an official danger alert for that region; it does not change the general level for the world.
- The level is the system's operational classification, not a scientific forecast. Do not invent a probability as a percentage.
- Preventive government preparation (an exercise, an alert-system test, a contingency plan) is NOT evidence of a crisis. An alert-system test is level 0, unless it is a real alert.
- An isolated price movement does not prove conflict or crisis.
- Simultaneous events are not, by themselves, a coordinated plan.
- Recirculated old news does not count as a new event.
- An unconfirmed social media rumor: at most level 1 and status "not_confirmed".

Sources

Limitations: FEMA, DHS and CISA block automated access and are followed through what they publish, via search. Oil prices come from news reports, not real-time quotes. Levels are operational, not scientific forecasts.